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Writer's pictureEITI GUINEA ECUATORIAL

NATURAL GAS OUTLOOK MIXED AMID VOLATILITY IN EUROPEAN MARKETS.

Updated: Jul 22


SOURCE: oil price


U.S. financial markets remained closed Wednesday in observance of Juneteenth, a day after news of dismal U.S. retail sales in May raised concerns about lackluster economic activity The Commerce Department's Census Bureau, retail sales grew just 0.1%, missing expectations for 0.2% growth, although inflation-adjusted sales rose 0.4% last month after declining 0.3% in April.


The latest report has raised hopes of an interest rate cut in September after the Federal Reserve left its benchmark overnight interest rate unchanged in the 5.25%-5.50% range. Henry Hub natural gas prices have retreated from their five-month high of $3.13/MMBtu a week ago to trade at $2.89/MMBtu as of Tuesday's close, still good for a jump of nearly 80% from its late April lows.


There has been no change to the dominant dynamics of the European gas market, with inventories rising more slowly than usual and markets still proving very sensitive to supply issues. Sudden outages and planned maintenance in Norway, along with the possibility of further cuts in Russian gas pipeline supply, have kept Dutch TTF natural gas futures around 35 euros per megawatt-hour, and money managers They have increased their bullish bets for the second consecutive week.


An unexpected outage at Norway's Sleipner Riser offshore hub connecting gas pipelines from the Nyhamna plant on Norway's west coast to the Easington terminal in the UK sent Dutch TTF natural gas futures up 10% on June 3 to the highest level in six months.


Norway has largely replaced Russia as the EU's largest gas supplier: the Nordic country supplies 30% of the bloc's gas, compared to 35% supplied by Russia before it invaded Ukraine.


Norway's national oil company (NOC), Equinor ASA (NYSE:EQNR), markets almost two-thirds of the country's gas exports. EU natural gas imports from Russia fell by more than 70% to 43 billion cubic meters (bcm) in 2023, from 150 bcm in 2021.


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